Which method should you use to improve your estimates and account for risk and estimation uncertainty?

Three-point estimating is a management technique to determine the probable outcomes of future events based on available information. The term refers to the three-points it measures: the best-case estimate, the most likely estimate, and the worst-case estimate. The formula attempts to determine the likelihood of reality matching up with each estimate.
This technique is used in information systems and management applications. Its usefulness is limited by the fact that information on future events is scarce, but it provides managers with some insight about how they should approach planning for a project or mapping out a project budget.