Ad analyst develops the following probability distribution for the states of the economy and market returns.
Which of the following statements about this probability distribution is least accurate?
P(good economy and bear market) = 0.60 x 0.20 = 0.12. The other statements are true. The P(normal market) = (0.60 x 0.30) + (0.40 x 0.30) = 0.30. Given that the economy is poor, the probability of a normal or bull market = 0.30 + 0.20 = 0.50.